MERCURY racing writer Damien Seaton takes a look at your best Melbourne Cup options.
Melbourne Cup top five tips:
(20) LIGHTS OF HEAVEN (Luke Nolen) she looked very dour in Caulfield Cup after settling seventh. She was held-up at a vital stage at the top of the straight and it took her a while to wind-up when she got into the clear. Her best part of the Caulfield Cup was the final 70 metres of the race when she just started to extend fully. This is her first try beyond 2400m, however being by Zabeel and the way she found the line in the Caulfield Cup I believe that she has slipped under the guard of many. She is at $21 and $6 and at those odds I'm more than happy to back her each way.
(2) AMERICAIN (Damien Oliver) drew barrier 19 in the Caulfield Cup and couldn't get in from the draw settling three-wide for the trip. He had trouble trying to keep the back of Dunaden when the sprint came on but was very good over the concluding stages and has been very solid in betting. He's second-up going into the Melbourne Cup which suits his pattern of racing and is certain to finish top 4. He handles all types of track conditions and he's foolproof at the distance. With Oliver going on it's a huge bonus and he has been rock solid at the $6.50.
(1)DUNADEN (Craig Williams) was simply awesome in the Caulfield Cup and displayed an amazing turn of foot to run down Alcopop, who has since franked the form by winning the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday. His only other start at 2 miles was when winning last year's Melbourne Cup. He is unbeaten at three starts in Australia and I would love to tip him on top, however weight can stop a train and with 59kg I can only see him finishing third or fourth.
(4) RED CADEAUX (Michael Rodd) was beaten a flared nostril in the Melbourne Cup last year and can certainly go one better in this year's version of the race. He meets Dunaden 2.5kg better that he did last year and his form since has been just as good. He has the services of Australia's best distance jockey in Michael Rodd and a bet of $3500 was taken by Tattsbet at $9. Watch for him late in the race and he's another that has to be included as a serious chance.
(5) WINCHESTER (Jamie Mott) has yet to be tested beyond 2400m, however his Caulfield Cup effort was good enough to suggest that is capable of running the two mile journey. He settled near the rear and was three wide and got back to second last at the 1800m. He followed Dunaden in the Caulfield Cup, but like many he couldn't go with the impressive turn of foot by Dunaden and was spotted doing his best work over the final 100 metres. Winchester again settled at the rear when sixth to Alcopop in the Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday and all four Australian starts have seen him cover extra ground. I expect him to drift marginally from his $51 quote and he could well be the bolter that most have overlooked.
LUKE'S TIP: (14) Green Moon (Brett Prebble)
BEST BETS FOR FLEMINGTON:
Race 3 No 6 Verdant (Dwayne Dunn) each way forever @ $6 and $2.25 as this race appears perfect for him.
Race 5 No 3 Magnier (Vlad Duric) is ready to win his first city race and what a day to do it.
Race 8 No 6 King Diamond (Nick Hall) at double figure odds you could do worse than back him at the odds.
Race 9 No 14 Altar (Kerrin McEvoy) at $7 and $2.50 I'm all over that quote.
Weekend Winners tasted success on Saturday when we tipped Appearance (50/1) as one of our three best bets of the day.
That followed up our best bet the week before when Freereturn won at 8/1.
Tuesday's best is Verdant in race three at Flemington.
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